This is one of the key findings in a new comparative Nordic research
report on youths, education and working life. Young people between 16
and 20 face several crucial life choices and are expected to make major
decisions at a stage of their lives which is the most critical in terms
of future success in the labour market.
Youths who do not take further secondary education or leave their
studies without graduating are easily knocked out. Their chances of
starting a working career are dramatically reduced and they risk ending
up in a group which researchers call NEET (not in employment, education
or training), in other words youths who are shunted off to the margins
of society. 
The Nordic Council of Ministers ordered a research report in order
to get an overview of the situation in the Nordic countries. The Nordic
Labour Journal has spoken to Research Director Rita Asplund at the
Research Institute of the Finnish Economy ETLA in Helsinki, who
coordinated the report.
“There has never been a similar study of youths over a longer period
of time in the Nordic countries.”
The researchers have had access to register-based statistics from
the Nordic countries which are used to build a common research
database. This includes data on three groups of youths from different
age groups; those who turned 16 in 1993, 1998 and 2003. Their continued
education after elementary school has been followed until 2008, when
the economic crisis hit. That means the longest period of monitoring
lasted 15 year.
The Nordic countries use different terminology for post-elementary
school studies. In Denmark they are called “ungdomsuddannelse”, in
Norway “videregående avsluttende utdanning” while the term used in
Sweden is “utbildning på gymnasial nivå” and in Finland “fortsatta
studier efter grundskolan i den allmänbildande gymnasieutbildningen och
yrkesutbildningen”.
Counterpoints
There is more than terminology which sets the countries apart. The
authors describe Denmark and Sweden as counterpoints, especially when
it comes to vocational training. Denmark has a well-developed
apprenticeship system, while vocational training in Sweden is mainly
school based. In many regards Finland is similar to Sweden and Norway
is similar to Denmark.
“Denmark is also different in that youths seem to manage well even
though they have not passed any upper secondary exams. Employment
levels are surprisingly high. Do they enter into working life at an
early stage and develop skills which see them through despite having
nothing more than a basic education?”
The study is highly descriptive so the researchers have no clear
answers to their questions. One reason why Danish youths manage without
an education could be that the industrial structure is different from
in the rest of the Nordic region, which provides more entry points to
the labour market for those who lack a degree.
In Sweden the situation is the opposite: youths who do not stick to
an exam timetable tend to end up in the same category as people who
have no exam at all.
“There is a very strong pattern, and if you don’t follow it there is
an increased risk for marginalisation or problems in the labour
market.”
Asplund notes that the Danes appear somewhat phlegmatic: a failure
in the labour market does not close other career paths — the system
allows for youths to try again.
Fail to sit exams
As the researchers met for the first time, no-one knew what
surprises were hiding in the data available. What caused the most
amazement was that a large number of youths are stuck in schooling long
after they should have passed their exams.
“We know they are registered as students, but they do not sit their
exams. Why is this so, and how is it possible for them to remain and
for no-one to take action?”
In Finland, for instance, just under one in five youths do not have
an upper secondary exam at the age of 21, despite most of them spending
nearly all their years after elementary school in education.
“For some reason they fail to finish their studies and therefore end
up in a very weak position in the labour market. Chances to find work
in Finland for those with only elementary education have been
dramatically reduced.”
Meanwhile, their contemporaries who do pass their exams within the
normal time do well both in the labour market and in life. It is also
encouraging to see that most of the youths do very well.
The marginalised
One phenomenon has grown in all of the four surveyed countries: a
growing group of youths fall outside of society, outside of education
and work, outside of social support systems. People at risk include
those who struggle with problems at home, and who struggle to succeed
in school and in the labour market. It is well documented that youths’
socio-economic background influences how they manage in school and in
working life, but the so-called family effect fades with
time.
This study shows that in addition to family circumstances, the
experience young people have by the time they are 20/21 has a major
effect, and that problems should be tackled in elementary school at the
latest.
“You should follow up what happens when they have left elementary
school.”
A warning signal
A warning signal should be sounded for youths who take a gap year
after elementary school, a common occurrence in Finland. This is often
a strong indication that something has gone wrong, perhaps in the
education or job mentoring system. These youths are very prone to end
up in the group at risk. This group should be given more attention the
researchers think, not least because the social costs of marginalised
youths grow very high both socially and economically.
“Mental illness has become an important factor leading to invalidity
pension. We talk far too little about the fact that mental illness is
increasing more among young people; they experience stress and feel
they cannot cope with life.”
The research report stops in the year 2008, but researchers are now
following up the subjects further and will expand the analysis while
extending the follow-up period to 2012.
“There are many reports which conclude that youths have had to take
the brunt of the fallout of the economic crisis.”
Read the report here:
Youth Unemployment and Inactivity: A comparison of school-to-work
transitions and labour market outcomes in four Nordic countries
